The Villa Allegra was designed by Oppenheim as perfect summer getaway which offers exoticism and shelter from tropical climate. Multiple rooms, both interior and exterior, have been added to this two-storey house and minimal alterations were made to the existing structure. The house is entered via large volume where a reflecting pool and oculus align [...]
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Designed by McBride Charles Ryan, Fitzroy High School is located in Melbourne, Australia. To the occupier the building was shaped from the interior out; an initial block of program was pushed and pulled to create a series of peninsulas within the large learning studios. The intent was to create spaces within spaces, studios that could operate [...]
Barwon Health Teaching, Training and Research Facility (TTR) designed by Billard Leece Partnership is located in Geelong, Australia. Deakin University and Barwon Health's TTR creates an integrated education and research precinct on the site of Geelong Hospital in Victoria's second largest and fastest growing city. Optimising the natural gradient of the site, the building provides [...]
The Cairns Institute – James Cook University that located in Cairns, Australia, was designed by Woods Bagot. The aim of this project was to put The Cairns Institute and James Cook University (JCU) on the international stage to attract post-graduate students from around the globe and to enable the university to draw a high calibre [...]
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The Advanced Engineering Building designed by HASSELL is located in Brisbane, Australia. The Advanced Engineering Building (AEB) at the University of Queensland will be a state-of-the-art engineering education building with flexible teaching and learning spaces. The multi-purpose building will have the appropriate mix of learning, workplace and social areas. The building also acts as a 'live [...]
You never listen to the voices inside They fill your ears as you run to a place to hide You're never sure if the illusion is real You pinch yourself but the mem'ries are all you feel Can you break away from your alibis Can you make a play will you meet me in the dark...
Billy Squire -- in The Dark
The NAr and lenders both want to convince potential buyers a problem exists with shadow inventory. They want to keep both this inventor and buyers in the dark.
by CHRISTINE RICCIARDI -- Monday, March 21st, 2011, 5:08 pm
Foreclosure time lines and an abundance of distressed home sales are causing wide fluctuations in shadow inventory across the country.
The National Association of Realtors released state-by-state data on shadow inventory Monday, calculating the data in relation to distressed property sales. On the whole, Capital Economics estimates there are 5.3 million homes in limbo between foreclosure and the sales market. Standard & Poor's states it could take up to 49 months to clear the shadow inventory books. However, the NAR numbers indicate which states are in better shape to unload these properties based on the respective proportion of distressed sales.
Florida holds the largest shadow inventory across the U.S., with more than 441,000 residential properties caught between foreclosure and the sales market, according to NAR. California is a far second with almost 228,000 residential properties constituting the shadow inventory. Shadow inventory properties are sold as distressed sales.
NAR attributed growing shadow inventories to the ramifications of recent disruptions to foreclosure time lines. Some states are having more trouble than others in moving these properties into foreclosure. For example, a mortgage in Florida is delinquent 638 days on average, the second longest time line in the country. The only state that tops that is New York where the average loan is delinquent 644 days before its cleared through the foreclosure process. New York currently holds the fourth largest shadow inventory of 107,500, according to NAR.
NAR reported that the length of the foreclosure process in Florida and California jumped 156% and 157%, respectively, since 2008.
Still, two states commonly seen as poster children for the foreclosure and housing crisis are faring much better in terms of clearing out shadow inventory. Nevada and Arizona both rank in the top 26 states with the largest shadow inventory. However, among those 26 states, they rank 11th (Arizona) and 16th (Nevada) for their level of shadow inventory, behind many states that are supposed to be in recovery, including Texas.
I am not surprised Nevada is not in the top 10 for shadow inventory. Lenders are processing foreclosures there. Wherever they decided to allow people to squat -- like California -- shadow inventory dominates the landscape.
"This is largely due to their shadow inventory moving somewhat faster through the pipelines and comprising larger share of existing sales," NAR said. Distressed sales comprised 69% of existing home sales in Nevada in the fourth quarter of 2010 and 55% in Arizona. (Full national stats available by clicking chart below.)
NAR reported early Monday that distressed sales nationwide increased to 39% of all existing purchase transactions in February. The median sale price is hurt by this type of sale, as well as the number of cash transactions that took during the month. The median sale fell 5.2% compared to one year ago to $156,000, NAR said.
Notice the NAr buries that little tidbit at the end of their press release. Perhaps they figured people wouldn't notice prices are falling again.
NAR determined it will take 29 months to clear shadow inventory in Florida, 11 months to clear in California, 34 months to clear in New York, seven months to clear in Nevada and nine months to clear in Arizona.
In Wyoming, the state with the smallest shadow inventory, it will take 13 months to clear the 1,837 homes in limbo. Nevada ties Mississippi for the shortest time frame to clear the shadow inventory at seven months. New Jersey has the longest time line at 51 months, according to NAR.
When the NAr calculates the months of inventory, they divide total inventory by the monthly sales rate to compute the number of months it would take to clear the existing inventory if no new properties were added. They use the same methodology to measure the months of inventory of shadow inventory. This measure is supposed to say something about how long the shadow inventory problem will be with us, but in typical NAr style, they rely on this measure to downplay the real seriousness of the problem.
In the real world, there are only so many buyers, and even if lenders put every distressed property on the market at once, prices could not be lowered enough to absorb that much supply. Lenders must slowly release this inventory or prices crash. Further, in the real world, when the composition of sales is more than 40% distressed properties, prices also fall. Therefore, lenders must manage the flow of properties to be no more than 40% of sales to keep prices stable.
When the total market inventory is around six months, lenders cannot add to total inventory without prices going down. The distressed properties become an additional 40% which pushes months of inventory to double digits where it is now. It has remained elevated for the last four years.
Realistically, shadow inventory can only be liquidated at 40% of the monthly sales rate. If you take the NAr estimate of 11 months of shadow inventory in California -- which is a joke -- and divide it by 40%, and the months of inventory balloons to 27.5.
The NAr measure of shadow inventory months of supply understates reality by 150%. The Standard and Poor's estimate of 49 months nationally is far more realistic. Four years from now, we will begin liquidating the long tail of distress that will follow this crisis into the later half of this decade.
Bankers allow each other to squat
One of the most infuriating facts about shadow inventory is its epicenter: the New York MSA. Boneheads in New York think their market is immune as it is one of the few where properties still routinely trade at peak prices. Little do they know that this price stability is an illusion created by shadow inventory.
by JACOB GAFFNEY -- Wednesday, February 2nd, 2011, 3:57 pm
"The shadow inventory in the New York MSA will take the longest to clear — 130 months as of fourth-quarter 2010. That is at least twice as long as it will take in any of the other top 20 MSAs and 2.7 times the average time to clear for the U.S. as a whole," the S&P report states. "This is primarily due to very low liquidation rates in New York."
What the hell is this? Very low liquidation rates? Why is that? Could it be that bankers don't want to hurt their own property values? What other reason could there be? Assholes.
The previous Ponzis
Many Ponzis from the housing bubble left their cash cows to the bagholder to pay off. The previous owners of this property got the better end of the deal.
The bought the property on 4/16/1999 for 265,500. The used a $212,200 first mortgage and a $53,300 down payment.
On 3/21/2001 they obtained a stand-alone second for $100,000. I hope they didn't spend it all in one place.
On 3/20/2002 they went in for their annual cash infusion. The refinanced the first mortgage for $285,000 and added a stand-alone second for $57,000.
On 6/3/2003 the refinanced with a $300,000 first mortgage and a $80,000 HELOC.
On 3/19/2004 they refinanced the $300,000 first mortgage.
On 7/29/2004 they refinanced with a $333,700 first mortgage.
On 3/4/2005 they refinanced with a $380,000 first mortgage. Then it gets weird.
On 6/8/2005 they refinanced with a $380,000 first mortgage.
On 7/13/2005 they refinanced with a $380,000 first mortgage.
On 10/20/2005 they refinanced with a $380,000 first mortgage.
On 2/16/2006 they refinanced with a $380,000 first mortgage. I wonder if one of the owners was a mortgage broker churning their own mortgage for fees? I have never seen four refinances for the same amount before.
Total mortgage equity withdrawal was $167,800.
After riding the equity wave for six years, they sell to the current dreamers for $525,000 on 12/18/2007.
The current dreamers
With aggregate prices in Irvine below $330/SF and falling, how do these owners realistically expect to get $397/SF for a corner lot at a busy intersection?
Based on when these people bought -- the market dropped more than 10% in 2008 -- they will be lucky to get near their asking price.
Perhaps that special buyer will come along who appreciates the unique attributes of this tract home and offers more than its asking price. ~~ giggles ~~
Home Purchase Price … $525,000 Home Purchase Date .... 12/18/2007
Net Gain (Loss) .......... $34,300 Percent Change .......... 6.5% Annual Appreciation … 3.8%
Cost of Ownership ------------------------------------------------- $595,000 .......... Asking Price $119,000 .......... 20% Down Conventional 4.79% ............... Mortgage Interest Rate $476,000 .......... 30-Year Mortgage $120,272 .......... Income Requirement
$2,495 .......... Monthly Mortgage Payment
$516 .......... Property Tax $125 .......... Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos) $99 .......... Homeowners Insurance $0 .......... Homeowners Association Fees ============================================ $3,234 .......... Monthly Cash Outlays
-$423 .......... Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax) -$594 .......... Equity Hidden in Payment $218 .......... Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes) $99 .......... Maintenance and Replacement Reserves ============================================ $2,534 .......... Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $5,950 .......... Furnishing and Move In @1% $5,950 .......... Closing Costs @1% $4,760 ............ Interest Points @1% of Loan $119,000 .......... Down Payment ============================================ $135,660 .......... Total Cash Costs $36,900 ............ Emergency Cash Reserves ============================================ $172,560 .......... Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 1 TRADITION Pl Irvine, CA 92602 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Beds: 3 Baths: 3 Sq. Ft.: 1500 $397/SF Lot Size: 5,162 Sq. Ft. Property Type: Residential, Single Family Style: Two Level, Other Year Built: 1999 Community: West Irvine County: Orange MLS#: S652679 Source: SoCalMLS Status: Active On Redfin: 1 day ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ UPGRADED Detached 3 bedrooms and 2.5 bathrooms home that is strategically located close to award-winning Myford Elementary & Pioneer Middle School. Cul-De-Sac location. Designer upgrades include elegant hardwood, tile flooring, custom carpet, and recess lightings. Cozy & warm living/family room with a fireplace. Spacious kitchen features 5-burner cooktop range, stainless steel appliances, oak cabinetry, reverse osmosis, instant hot water and granite countertop. A huge master suite with walk-in closet that is big enough to be a bedroom, dual vanities and a shower in the master bathroom. Powder room with pedestal sink, and convenient upstairs laundry. Hardscaped backyard, great for entertaining families & friends. NEW insulated garage door, NEW faucets, NEW mirrors in the upstairs bathrooms. A/C & heating unit were recently serviced. NO HOA & LOW Mello Roos (approx. $1,500/ yr)
To watch majestic cities decline is never fun. New Orleans took it’s hit with the natural devastation of Hurricane Katrina and can come back, but what will happen to great cities like Detroit that are crumbling under the mismanagement of auto executives and union representatives?
The rust belt cities have taken a huge hit during the last decade as industry leaves and people flee for better opportunities. The crashing of cities like Cleveland and Cincinnati have slid under the radar of Detroit’s epic fall. Even mighty Chicago has lost 200,000 residents.
What is even worse for these cities is they all have huge public works infrastructures that are driving taxes even higher as their populace flees. Most of the cities are highly unionized in both the public and private sector so there is very little flexibility to improvise and improve their lot.
Instead, they watch their mobile, productive citizens flee and are left trying to keep the cities moving forward.
What mayor will be the next Ozymandias? (Poem below)
Top 10 Cities Losing Population Since 2000 in the United States
City 2010 +/- Since 2000 % Change New Orleans 343,829 -140,845 -29.1 Detroit 713,777 -237,493 -25.0 Cleveland 396,815 -81,588 -17.1 Cincinnati 296,943 -34,342 -10.4 Pittsburgh 305,704 -28,859 -08.6 Toledo 287,208 -26,411 -08.4 St. Louis 319,294 -28,895 -08.3 Chicago 2,695,598 -200,418 -06.9 Baltimore 620,961 -30,193 -04.6 Santa Ana` 324,528 -13,449 -04.0
I met a traveller from an antique land Who said: Two vast and trunkless legs of stone Stand in the desert. Near them, on the sand, Half sunk, a shattered visage lies, whose frown And wrinkled lip, and sneer of cold command Tell that its sculptor well those passions read Which yet survive, stamped on these lifeless things, The hand that mocked them and the heart that fed. And on the pedestal these words appear: “My name isOzymandias, king of kings: Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!” Nothing beside remains. Round the decay Of that colossal wreck, boundless and bare The lone and level sands stretch far away.
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The client, an Art Gallery director, asked for a contemporary home on a narrow inner city allotment. The house was to have two bedrooms plus an extra study that could be used for visiting artists to stay in, and was also to include a private subterranean gallery. The house extends over 3 levels; the entry [...]
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The Kirkeparken High School designed by LINK arkitektur AS is located in Moss, Norway. The school covers an area of 22,000 sq m and is centrally located right next to the oldest church in the district dating back to 1860. The school is home to several multipurpose halls for culture and arts, a picture gallery, [...]
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Designed by CHRISTOU Design Group, Curtin Stadium, Timelessness and flexibility is located in Perth, Australia is an elegant solution for a multipurpose sport, recreation, examination and events space, a distilled form that clearly expresses a variety of functions. Bold, solid, transparent north-south layers and a luminous sports hall creates create a strong landmark for the [...]
The University of Queensland School of Veterinary Science designed by Architectus is located in Gatton, Australia. The Architectus project for the University of Queensland’s School of Veterinary Science required the consolidation of the University’s animal research groups from UQ’s main campus in the Brisbane, Australia suburb of St. Lucia to its rural Gatton campus, 90km [...]
The deflating housing bubble has done little to curb American's enthusiasm for owning real estate. However, the collapse has provided people sound reasons for not buying a house.
Hey it’s good to be back home again - you know it is Sometimes this old farm feels like a long-lost friend Hey, it’s good to be back home again I said hey it’s good to be back home again
The need for shelter is basic as is the desire for community. In the United States, this translates into a desire to take on a very large mortgage to buy real estate. These basic human emotions drive much of the activity in real estate markets.
Most people buy because it is the right time for them. Their career, age, family circumstances all come together to push people toward ownership at different times. Some are fortunate and buy at the bottom of the real estate cycle. Some are not so fortunate and buy at the peak.
The most damaging aspect of our current system is the price volatility. It capriciously rewards some and destroys others. Home price volatility creates a culture of Ponzi borrowing and dependency. The goal of government policy should be price stability, but lately it seems their goal is price maximization.
Seven Reasons We're Buying and Four Reasons We're Not
By Julia Edwards and Edmund L. Andrews Wednesday, March 23, 2011 -- 12:28 p.m.
Although the housing bubble and bust may have shattered notions that home prices have nowhere to go but up, Americans haven’t lost their love for owning a home. In the latest Allstate/National JournalHeartland Monitor poll, homeownership ranked second, just behind raising a family, in people’s definition of the American Dream. Despite new home sales' drop to a record low, about four-fifths of respondents said that owning a home is still a better financial decision than renting, and nearly nine in 10 homeowners say would buy their home again.
Those results also underscore the extent to which Americans see buying a home as a deeply personal decision. It seems the decision to buy a home is made from the heart, while the decision to rent comes from the wallet.
That is a great way to look at the situation. Most people want to buy and own. Those who look rationally at the costs often chose to rent, not because it's the most emotionally pleasing choice, but because it's the most financially sound decision. Those who chose to rent recognize that being house poor is its own form of unhappiness that so takes away from the joy of ownership as to make it undesirable.
We reveal the top seven reasons why Americans are still drawn to owning a home, and the four reasons that make them hesitant to buy, according to the Heartland Monitor poll.
Reason to Buy No. 7: Getting a tax deduction
Only 2 percent said they considered the tax deduction for homeowner’s a reason to buy a home. That number may come as a shock to members of the Obama administration, who designed the first-time homebuyer tax credit, now expired, as an incentive to bring more buyers to market.
That is a surprisingly low number. Nationally, only about a third of home owning taxpayers take the home mortgage interest deduction, but the proportion in Irvine will be much higher. For high wage earners borrowing upwards of a million dollars, the tax deduction is very motivating.
Reason to Buy No. 6: Following in your parents’ footsteps
Following the path of mom and dad tied with a tax deduction among participants. Only 2 percent said they considered it important to own a home because they had grown up in a house.
I suspect this number is so low because people are unaware of their true motivations. So much of our behavior is subconscious, and the familiarity of house and home provides a psychological anchoring to real estate that runs very deep.
Reason to Buy No. 5: Being part of a neighborhood and community
Putting down roots in a community was a reason to buy a home among 6 percent of participants.
This is another area where Irvine is a special subset of buyers. Many people chose master planned communities like Irvine because they want neighborhood involvement. The number may only represent 6% of America, but it is much higher among readers of this blog.
Reason to Buy No. 4: Acquiring an asset you can pass along
The security that used to come with owning a tangible property may have faded, but 9 percent of participants said they still consider it a reason to buy a home.
Our society has become so mobile that people have come to recognize the impermanence of all living arrangements. We no longer buy family homes and stay there through our passing.
Personally, I plan to acquire several investment homes to pass on to my son. I guess I am one of the 9 percent.
Reason to Buy No. 3: Making a good, long-term investment
Although foreclosure rates may tell us otherwise, 13 percent still believed that owning a home is a good, long-term investment.
The question is a bit vague and misleading. All the terms are up for interpretation: What is good? What is long-term? And what is investment? I believe a good long-term investment is an income property with an 8% cap rate in today's market. Some believe a good long-term investment is a speculative flip in the North Korea towers. Over the very long term, real estate values rise in nominal dollars along with inflation. Is that good?
Reason to Buy No. 2: Building equity rather than paying rent
Building equity was the strongest of all financial reasons to own a home. Twenty-six percent of participants said they would own a home to build credit through a mortgage payment rather than earning less credit through paying rent.
The reason people want to own the home is to obtain appreciation. This nonsense about paying down a mortgage is not what people really think. No California Ponzi believes they have to reduce the balance of their mortgage. Mortgages are made to get larger.
realtors like to spin this as "throwing money away on rent." Of course, they ignore the fact that they are throwing away much more money renting the bank's money, but the tax deduction makes it all okay, right?
Reason to Buy No. 1: Having a place to raise a family
An overwhelming 40 percent said that raising a family in a place of their own was the ultimate factor in their decision to buy. The housing market may rise and fall, but the value of the home to the American family seems set in stone.
People have come to equate ownership with stability. Unfortunately, our concept of ownership has been perverted into money rentership. Ownership with a huge mortgage is tenuous compared to renting. Capricious landlords evicting good tenants are much less common than robo-signing lenders evicting delinquent borrowers.
The timeless and the new
The reasons listed above are timeless. No matter when an article like this is written, the above reasons will be on it, and they will be just as compelling to buyers. The new are the reasons not to buy. These are a direct response to the collapsing housing bubble.
Reason Not to Buy No. 4: Entering into many years of debt
The bursting of the bubble and the horror stories that followed made 13 percent of respondents hesitant to agree to pay the high price of a home.
Five years ago, nobody cared about debt levels.
Reason Not to Buy No. 3: Losing the flexibility to move if you need to find a new job
In our mobile society and fickle job market, 21 percent said they would be hesitant to lock into a place that they may not be able to sell should they have to move to take a job.
Five years ago, everyone assumed you would simply sell your house for a huge profit if you needed to move.
Reason Not to Buy No. 2: Risking you home losing value if real-estate prices drop
“Price Reduced” signs cropping up in the yards of neighbors desperate to sell led 21 percent to back away from buying a home that could sell for less than the price they paid for it.
Five years ago, with exception of a few of us crazy bloggers, very few people believed prices could go down.
Reason Not to Buy No. 1: Monthly mortgage payments are too high
As opposed to the familial emotions that made 40 percent lean toward homeownership, the harsh realities of high monthly mortgage payments was the ultimate reason that 40 percent of participants said they would not buy a home.
The last reason is why house prices still need to come down. Despite the low interest rates, the cost of ownership is still too high in many markets.
What's it like to be immobile?
Today's featured property is an example of reasons number 3 above. People who buy now, or who bought since 2009, are facing the problem of a flat or declining market. When prices don't go up, people have to pay the sales commissions out of their down payment. That was their money rather than the market's. When free money from the appreciation fairies doesn't materialize, owners generally price their properties to accomplish three things:
Provide negotiating room to lower price,
Pay the realtor, and
Get their down payment money back.
Hence, we see properties priced just over breakeven like today's.
I want every buyer looking today and over the next two or three years to be forewarned that they could find themselves in this situation. And reinforcing risk #2 -- dropping prices -- it could even be worse.
Home Purchase Price … $660,000 Home Purchase Date .... 3/20/09
Net Gain (Loss) .......... $(2,000) Percent Change .......... -0.3% Annual Appreciation … 2.8%
Cost of Ownership ------------------------------------------------- $700,000 .......... Asking Price $140,000 .......... 20% Down Conventional 4.82% ............... Mortgage Interest Rate $560,000 .......... 30-Year Mortgage $141,986 .......... Income Requirement
$2,945 .......... Monthly Mortgage Payment
$607 .......... Property Tax $0 .......... Special Taxes and Levies (Mello Roos) $117 .......... Homeowners Insurance $82 .......... Homeowners Association Fees ============================================ $3,750 .......... Monthly Cash Outlays
-$714 .......... Tax Savings (% of Interest and Property Tax) -$696 .......... Equity Hidden in Payment $258 .......... Lost Income to Down Payment (net of taxes) $117 .......... Maintenance and Replacement Reserves ============================================ $2,716 .......... Monthly Cost of Ownership
Cash Acquisition Demands ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ $7,000 .......... Furnishing and Move In @1% $7,000 .......... Closing Costs @1% $5,600 ............ Interest Points @1% of Loan $140,000 .......... Down Payment ============================================ $159,600 .......... Total Cash Costs $41,600 ............ Emergency Cash Reserves ============================================ $201,200 .......... Total Savings Needed
Property Details for 8 WHITECLOUD Irvine, CA 92614 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Beds: 4 Baths: 2 Sq. Ft.: 1860 $376/SF Lot Size: 1 Sq. Ft. Property Type: Residential, Single Family Style: Two Level, Cape Cod Year Built: 1980 Community: Woodbridge County: Orange MLS#: S652539 Source: SoCalMLS Status: Active On Redfin: 1 day ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Location, Location! One block from the Lake. .. 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bath single family detached home in premium 'inside the loop' location. Walk to award winning elementary and middle school or perhaps stroll to the lake and enjoy the view or activities at the South Lake Beach Club/Lagoon. Rarely on the market, this spacious Wildflower model has an open floor plan, cathedral ceilings, newer Low E dual paned vinyl windows throughout, newer roof. Separate living room with charming inglenook seating area with own fireplace, large slider window and door invites the entertainer's backyard into the room. Kitchen has updated stainless steel appliances, countertop, tile flooring and recessed lighting - separate family room flows from the kitchen with built in shelving. Bathrooms have updated glass shower doors and lighting fixtures. Closet organizers in all bedroom closets. Great location, great house, come see and make it your home.
We've got a new Exclusive Access Property. It is a 2bd/1.25ba 1,000 square foot condo (single level, first floor entry, 1 car attached garage) in Mission Viejo priced at $249,900. If you are considering purchasing this to rent it out, the seller is interested in leasing the home back for a year. This home is not yet on MLS but will be in 7 days.
If you want to learn more about this property, please contact us:
To watch majestic cities decline is never fun. New Orleans took it’s hit with the natural devastation of Hurricane Katrina and can come back, but what will happen to great cities like Detroit that are crumbling under the mismanagement of auto executives and union representatives? 
